August 2, 2012

Bo Xilai and coming changes in China

Bo Xilai and coming changes in China - Dan Blumenthal and Lara Crouch
“As we watch these events unfold, it behooves us to remember that one of the reasons outsiders are paying attention to the idea that there may be a coup in China is that the military is the only institution that can keep the country together. Political crisis in China could pave the way for a PLA-led China. If anything, the downfall of Bo tells us is that the transition in China is not as smooth as it seems. Power struggles are real as party leaders fight over an inverted Golden Rule -- in China, he who makes the rules gets the gold. While the particulars of the Bo case are uncertain, two things are clear: The leaders are no longer all powerful and reform is badly needed. The question is, will China make the kind of changes it objectively needs or will it become a stagnating PLA-led state?”

Comment: The Chinese model is brittle, more than a little paranoid, and despite protests to the contrary no different from any other autocratic system...those in power want to stay in power and will do whatever is necessary to maintain their position. As pointed out in the article, China’s leaders face extraordinary challenges in the coming years. At this point, no one can know how it will all turn out.

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